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Previewing The Fed’s “Extremely Uncertain” July Decision, And How JPM and Goldman Are Trading It

预览美联储"极度不确定"的七月决策，以及摩根大通和高盛如何应对交易

BY TYLER DURDEN

WEDNESDAY, JUL 29, 2026 - 07:40 AM

The Federal Reserve is expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75%, with money markets currently assigning a surprisingly high 32% chance of a hike on Wednesday, and 42bps of tightening currently priced in by year-end.

美联储预计将维持利率在 3.50-3.75% 不变，而货币市场目前出人意料地认为周三加息的可能性高达 32%，年底前已定价的紧缩幅度为 42 个基点。

Most pundits and sell-side analysts see the central bank leaving rates on hold - especially since last month’s inflation reports came well below expectations, and there are no dots or forecasts to update this month - as highlighted by the latest Reuters poll which saw all 104 forecasters expecting an unchanged rate decision. 78 out of 104 see no change through the year, while only 6 see rate cuts. Meanwhile, despite consensus for a hold, 66% of respondents now view the likelihood of a rate hike this year as “high,” a significant shift from the “low” sentiment recorded in June. Nonetheless, outside of the poll Citadel gave an out of consensus call and sees a 25bps hike on Wednesday (more on that below).

大多数权威人士和卖方分析师认为央行将维持利率不变——尤其是考虑到上个月的通胀报告远低于预期，且本月无需更新点阵图或预测——正如最新路透调查所显示，所有 104 位预测者均预期利率决定不变。其中 78 位预测全年利率不变，仅 6 位预测降息。与此同时，尽管市场普遍预期按兵不动，但 66% 的受访者目前认为今年加息的可能性 "较高"，这与 6 月记录的 "较低" 情绪形成显著转变。不过，除调查外，城堡投资给出了非共识预测，认为周三将加息 25 个基点（下文详述）。

A softer than expected June CPI report, weaker nonfarm payrolls and the latest drop in the price of oil, have given the Committee room to wait, and forward guidance is not expected to see any forward guidance given the alteration in communication policy. This would allow officials to assess how the Middle East conflict develops, particularly after the recent escalations and subsequent de-escalations between the US and Iran, which has resulted in volatile oil prices. Policymakers have previously cautioned against responding too quickly to what may prove to be a temporary shock, although underlying inflation remains well above target. For Chair Warsh, the most likely outcome may therefore be a hawkish hold. For context, in the June projections, nine of the 18 participants who submitted forecasts expected at least one rate hike this year.

低于预期的 6 月 CPI 报告、疲软的非农就业数据以及近期油价下跌，为委员会提供了观望空间。鉴于沟通政策的调整，预计本次不会发布任何前瞻性指引。这将使官员们得以评估中东冲突的演变态势——尤其是在近期美伊关系先升级后降级、导致油价剧烈波动的背景下。政策制定者此前已警告称，不应过快应对可能被证明是暂时性的冲击，尽管核心通胀仍远高于目标水平。对沃什主席而言，最可能的结果或许是 "鹰派暂停"。作为背景，在 6 月的预测中，提交预测的 18 位参与者中有 9 位预计今年至少加息一次。

Chair Warsh

During the last FOMC meeting, the Fed completely switched up the statement under Chair Warsh’s leadership and first confab. It was dramatically shortened, removed all forward guidance language, and reinforced the Committee’s commitment to return to the 2% inflation target. As such, any even minor wording changes will be closely scrutinized, and while unlikely to radically change, it is yet to be seen whether there is a consistent statement formula and format, given this is only the second meeting under Warsh. In the following press conference, the Chair is likely to face questions surrounding the inflationary effects of the Middle East conflict, the newly announced task forces and whether the latest data could bring forward the timetable for action. Given Warsh’s distaste for forward guidance, he is unlikely to offer a clear signal. He will likely emphasize that all options remain open, and that future decisions will depend on the data. Desks anticipate a continued emphasis on the inflation side of the dual mandate, though without offering any type of commitment for future hikes. Credit Agricole do not expect any major updates from any of Warsh’s five task forces as it may take until closer to the end of the year for recommendations to be finalized, and likely means no change in balance sheet policy for the time being, and over a longer horizon they remain skeptical that aggressive shrinkage will end up taking place.

在最近一次联邦公开市场委员会会议上，美联储在主席沃什的领导下首次召开会议，对声明进行了彻底调整。声明大幅精简，删除了所有前瞻性指引措辞，并强化了委员会回归 2% 通胀目标的承诺。因此，任何细微的措辞变化都将受到密切关注。尽管声明不太可能发生根本性改变，但由于这是沃什主持下的第二次会议，尚不确定是否已形成固定的声明表述和格式。在随后的新闻发布会上，主席可能面临关于中东冲突对通胀影响、新宣布的工作组以及最新数据是否会提前行动时间表等问题，鉴于活仗对前瞻性指引的排斥，他不太可能给出明确信号。他或将强调所有选项均保持开放，未来决策将取决于数据表现。市场机构预计，美联储将继续侧重双重使命中的通胀方面，但不会对未来的加息做出任何承诺。法国农业信贷银行预计，沃什领导的五个工作组短期内不会发布重大更新，相关建议可能要到接近年底才能最终确定。这意味着资产负债表政策暂时不会改变，而从长期来看，他们仍对激进缩表能否最终实现持怀疑态度。

FOMC statement and press conference

美联储 FOMC 声明及新闻发布会

The question hanging over the July FOMC meeting is whether the Fed will display patience or whether it has run out of patience. According to Morgan Stanley, the answer is the former (the bank expects the Fed to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75%). MS also thinks that the statement probably will be unchanged: reiteration of the “ample reserve” policy, economic activity “expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty”. There’s been no major new indication on productivity growth or capex. And the FOMC can still describe the unemployment rate as “changed little”, and inflation as “elevated”.

笼罩在 7 月 FOMC 会议上的悬念在于：美联储是会展现耐心，还是已经失去耐心。摩根士丹利认为答案是前者（该行预计美联储将维持联邦基金利率目标区间在 3.50-3.75% 不变）。摩根士丹利还认为，声明内容可能保持不变：重申 "充足准备金" 政策，经济活动 "尽管面临高度不确定性仍以稳健步伐扩张"。目前尚未出现关于生产率增长或资本支出的重大新信号。FOMC 仍可将失业率描述为 "变化不大"，通胀水平描述为 "居高不下"。

Meanwhile, while softer payrolls and a softer CPI report may have reduced the pressure to tighten since the last meeting, upside risks to rates include persistently high oil prices, a more hawkish Fed reaction function, or stronger Al-driven investment lifting neutral rates.

与此同时，尽管自上次会议以来，较为疲软的就业数据和 CPI 报告可能缓解了收紧政策的压力，但利率上行风险依然存在，包括持续高企的油价、美联储更为鹰派的反应机制，或人工智能驱动的投资提振中性利率。

Exhibit 1: Higher oil prices remain a risk to our outlook for disinflation

Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research

Source: Morgan Stanley 来源: 摩根士丹利

Echoing Morgan Stanley, Goldman likewise does not expect Warsh to offer (m)any hints about the policy outlook in his press conference, though he might also acknowledge the upside risks to inflation posed by the latest rise in oil prices.He recently announced the leaders of the five Chairman’s Task Forces for Advancing Monetary Policy and might provide an update on the timeline for their work.

与摩根士丹利观点一致，高盛同样预计沃什不会在新闻发布会上就政策前景给出（太多）暗示，不过他可能也会承认近期油价上涨对通胀构成的上行风险。他近期宣布了五位推进货币政策主席特别工作组的负责人，并可能就相关工作的时间表提供最新进展。

Data

June CPI was cooler-than-expected across the board, and unwound some of the hawkish moves seen after Waller comments prior to the metrics; the Governor said that in the scenario of a hot core June CPI print, a near-term hike should be considered. Meanwhile, Waller added that in the event of a cool print, he would still need a couple more that way to see that as a signal. In addition, the June US nonfarm payrolls report was weaker than anticipated, with the headline below consensus, prior revised down and two-month net at -74k (prev. +93k). While the unemployment rate ticked down, it was likely a result of the decline in the overall participation rate.

6 月 CPI 数据全线低于预期，部分扭转了此前沃勒讲话后市场出现的鹰派走势；这位理事曾表示，若 6 月核心 CPI 数据表现强劲，应考虑近期加息。与此同时，沃勒补充称，即便数据表现温和，他仍需看到更多类似数据才能将其视为信号。此外，6 月美国非农就业报告弱于预期，整体数据低于市场共识，正值被下修，两个月净变动为 -7.4 万（正值 +9.3 万）。尽管失业率小幅下降，但这很可能是整体劳动参与率下滑所致。

Recent Fed Speak 近期美联储官员讲话

Since the prior meeting, and accompanying SEPs (which Warsh abstained from), Governors Waller and Cook have indicated that they would consider tightening if disinflation stalls, while there have been notable hawkish comments from 2026 voters Logan and Hammack. The former called for a modestly higher policy rate, which would better the balance outlook and risks, and that some policy restriction is needed to help get inflation to target. Hammack outright said the Fed may need to consider rate hikes. Based on the commentary alone, there is scope for 2-4 possible dissents if the Fed does decide to hold rates.

自上次会议及同步发布的经济预测摘要 (沃什投了弃权票) 以来，理事沃勒和库克已表示，若通胀放缓进程停滞，他们将考虑收紧政策；而 2026 年票委洛根和哈马克则发表了显著鹰派言论。前者呼吁适度提高政策利率，以改善平衡前景与风险，并认为需要一定程度的政策限制来帮助通胀回归目标水平。哈马克则直言美联储可能需考虑加息。仅从这些言论来看，若美联储决定维持利率不变，可能出现 2 至 4 张反对票。

In summary, comments from FOMC participants indicate that many could support hiking if the inflation news reverts to worse than expected in coming months. As a result, Goldman sees little margin for error on inflation and suspect that continued conflict could influence the rate hike debate more than the oil passthrough math alone implies by adding to concerns that supply shocks could continue and can come back unpredictably even after they appear over.

综上所述，联邦公开市场委员会成员的评论表明，若未来数月通胀数据意外恶化，许多成员可能支持加息。因此，高盛认为通胀数据几乎没有容错空间，并推测持续的地缘冲突可能比单纯的油价传导效应更显著地影响加息辩论——因为这会加剧市场对供应冲击可能持续，甚至在看似结束后仍可能不可预测地卷土重来的担忧。

Exhibit 5: Recent Comments from FOMC Participants Suggest That Many Could Support Hiking If the Inflation News Is Worse Than We Expect

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Source: Goldman 来源：高盛

Middle East

As always, attention resides around the US/Iran war, and a new development since the last meeting is that the MoU has been breached, with the countries reinitiating strikes at each other. However, strikes had paused over the weekend resulting in a reduction of the geopolitical risk premium with oil prices tumbling in the days leading into the FOMC rate decision, helping ease inflation expectations.

一如既往，市场的焦点仍集中在美伊冲突上。自上次会议以来，事态出现了新变化——谅解备忘录已被打破，双方重新开始互相打击。不过，上周末袭击行动暂停，地缘政治风险溢价随之降低，油价在美联储利率决议公布前数日大幅下跌，这有助于缓解通胀预期。

Sell-Side

Credit Agricole expect the central bank to remain on hold, but do add they are entering into a new era in which limited forward guidance under new Chair Warsh leaves some suspense around rate decisions, meaning more live meetings, which is reflected in current money market pricing. Nonetheless, Credit Agricole thinks the data since the last meeting at the very least buys more time for the Fed to stay on hold.

法国农业信贷银行预计央行将维持利率不变，但同时指出，他们正进入一个新时代：在新任主席沃什的领导下，有限的前瞻性指引给利率决策留下了悬念，这意味着将有更多会议充满变数，这一点已反映在当前的货币市场定价中。尽管如此，法国农业信贷银行认为，自上次会议以来的数据至少为美联储争取了更多按兵不动的时间。

According to Goldman, despite the rebound in oil prices, the bank continues to expect the combined impact of tariffs, the war, and Al mismeasurement on monthly inflation to diminish in the months ahead. That said, both the effects of the war and the month-to-month impact of the software and accessories category are uncertain. FOMC participants have appeared to take the effects of Al demand on the inflation statistics at face value (in contrast to Goldman’s most benign view, which is shared by some Fed staff economists and the BEA) and the FOMC’s June minutes suggested that any source of further firmness in inflation, including these three factors that a central bank might normally look through, could count as an argument for rate hikes.

据高盛分析，尽管油价出现反弹，该行仍预计关税、战争及人工智能统计偏差对月度通胀的叠加影响将在未来数月内逐步减弱。不过，战争效应以及软件与配件类别的月度影响仍存在不确定性。联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）成员似乎已按表面价值接受了人工智能需求对通胀统计数据的影响（这与高盛最乐观的评估形成对比——部分美联储经济学家及经济分析局也持此观点），而 FOMC 六月会议纪要显示，任何导致通胀进一步走强的因素——包括央行通常可能忽略的这三项因素——都可能成为加息的理由。

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Source: Goldman 来源：高盛

As a result, Goldman expects the FOMC to leave the fed funds rate unchanged tomorrow. The statement might acknowledge the upside risks to inflation posed by renewed geopolitical conflict, and there will likely be at least one dissent in favor of a hike. The bank is skeptical that modest rate hikes would provide much of a disinflationary offset to the impact of supply shocks, and suspects Fed officials would agree, but if the inflation news does not continue to improve, some might still see it as important for the Fed to respond to avoid the public misperception that it accepts high inflation.

因此，高盛预计联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）明日将维持联邦基金利率不变。声明可能承认地缘政治冲突再度升级对通胀构成上行风险，且至少会有一名委员持反对意见主张加息。该行对温和加息能否有效抵消供应冲击带来的通胀影响持怀疑态度，并认为美联储官员也会认同这一观点——但如果通胀数据未能持续改善，部分官员仍可能认为美联储有必要采取行动，以避免公众误认为其容忍高通胀。

Market pricing implies that investors see the outcome of the July meeting as unusually uncertain, likely because the FOMC has been split recently, Chairman Warsh’s own position remains unclear, and some of the re-escalation with Iran occurred during the blackout period. But most voters appear unlikely to push for a hike next week after the softer June inflation data, the Fed has historically avoided delivering surprise rate hikes, and we suspect that voters might be especially reluctant to do so at a meeting without a Summary of Economic Projections.

市场定价显示，投资者认为 7 月会议结果存在异常不确定性，这很可能源于近期 FOMC 内部分歧、沃什主席自身立场尚未明确，以及伊朗局势在静默期再度升级。但多数投票委员在 6 月通胀数据走软后似乎不太可能推动下周加息，美联储历史上也避免意外加息，且我们推测委员们可能尤其不愿在未发布经济预测摘要的会议上采取加息行动。

Wrightson ICAP’s chief economist Lou Crandall said there is no good reason for the Fed not to raise interest rates. At PGIM, head of global bonds and chief investment strategist Robert Tipp said the market is probably underestimating the probability of a move Wednesday. “He has really set the stage for a hike,” Tipp said. “Putting off the decision now would raise the probability to do a 50 in September.”

Wrightson ICAP 首席经济学家卢·克兰德尔表示，美联储没有理由不加息。PGIM 全球债券主管兼首席投资策略师罗伯特·蒂普则认为，市场可能低估了周三加息的可能性。"他确实为加息铺平了道路，" 蒂普表示，“现在推迟决定将增加 9 月加息 50 个基点的概率。”

Buy-Side

As mentioned earlier, Citadel Securities has emerged as the lone but quite vocal outlier which expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates 25bps this week in a surprise move strengthening Chairman Warsh’s credibility in the battle with inflation. “The market may once again be underestimating the extent of the hawkish shift at the Fed,” wrote Frank Flight, the head of macro strategy at Citadel Securities, who flipped his base case this week to an increase, in what he said “would emphatically end the forward guidance era” while underscoring the Fed’s independence.

如前所述，城堡证券已成为唯一但相当高调的特例，该机构预计美联储本周将意外加息 25 个基点，以增强主席沃什在抗击通胀中的公信力。"市场可能再次低估了美联储鹰派转向的程度，“城堡证券宏观策略主管弗兰克·弗莱特写道。他本周将基准预期调整为加息，称此举" 将彻底终结前瞻性指引时代”，同时凸显美联储的独立性。

Bond market veteran Harley Bassman went a step further, arguing in a note Tuesday that the Fed should “rip off the band aid” and raise rates by half a point — a move that would both give it credibility on fighting inflation and fend off pressure from President Donald Trump to lower borrowing costs. “A 50 basis point hike shows there is a new seriff in town, and he is not beholden to the President,” Bassman wrote on his website “The Convexity Maven.”

债券市场资深人士哈雷·巴斯曼更进一步，他在周二的一份报告中主张美联储应 "快刀斩乱麻"，直接加息 50 个基点——此举既能增强其在抗击通胀方面的公信力，又能抵御总统唐纳德·特朗普要求降低借贷成本的压力。"加息 50 个基点表明，这里有了新警长，而且他不受总统左右，" 巴斯曼在其网站 "凸性大师" 上写道。

Will The Fed Surprise | 美联储会带来意外吗

According to Goldman, market pricing implies that investors see the outcome of the July meeting as unusually uncertain. The bank notes that the current pricing implying a roughly 32% chance of a hike persists going into the meeting, either outcome would be the largest surprise in a few decades (except of course the pre 2024 presidential election’s shock 50bps rate cut meant to keep Trump out of the White House) at a meeting where the Fed hiked or held, because the Fed has historically avoided delivering surprise rate hikes at its meetings.

据高盛分析，市场定价显示投资者认为 7 月会议的结果异常不确定。该行指出，当前定价暗示会议前加息概率约为 32%，无论最终结果是加息还是按兵不动，都将是几十年来最大的意外（当然，2024 年总统大选前为阻止特朗普入主白宫而意外降息 50 个基点的情况除外），因为美联储历来避免在会议上意外加息。

Investors see elevated risk of Fed interest-rate hike this week

$\blacksquare$ Gap between market pricing and Fed decisions one day before meeting

$\blacksquare$ Rate-hike pricing for July 29

Note: Data excludes emergency Fed meetings in March 2020.

Source: Bloomberg

Bloomberg

Since 2015, traders have foreseen the Fed’s ultimate rate decision with an average error of 2.4 basis points the day before the central bank’s announcement, according to a note from Ian Lyngen, head of US rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets. “The market is set up for a sharper kneejerk response to the FOMC announcement than is typically the case,” Lyngen said.

自 2015 年以来，交易员对美联储最终利率决定的预测，在央行宣布前一天的平均误差仅为 2.4 个基点，BMO 资本市场美国利率策略主管伊恩. 林根在报告中指出。"市场对联邦公开市场委员会声明的即时反应，可能比往常更为剧烈，" 林根表示。

Jonathan Pingle, chief US economist at UBS, said he hasn’t felt this uncertain about an imminent Fed rate decision in 20 years, back when Ben Bernanke became Fed chair. A lack of a trade record by Worah and recent divisions among Fed officials are further clouding the outlook, he said, not ruling out a scenario where Warsh is the one who casts the deciding vote.

瑞银首席美国经济学家乔纳森·平格尔称，自 20 年前本·伯南克担任美联储主席以来，他从未对即将到来的利率决定感到如此不确定。沃什缺乏过往记录，加上近期美联储官员之间的分歧，进一步模糊了前景，他并未排除沃什投下决定性一票的可能性。

“Given the fact that he can push around sort of the median of the committee at the moment, he’s going to decide policy for the next few meetings, and we really have no idea how Kevin Warsh thinks about monetary policy.”

“鉴于他目前能够左右委员会的中位数立场，他将决定未来几次会议的货币政策，而我们完全不了解凯文·沃什对货币政策的看法。”

According to Goldman, the market uncertainty likely reflects that Chairman Warsh’s approach is sufficiently different to raise doubts about whether historical patterns still apply, that his own position on hiking remains unclear, that the FOMC has been split recently, that some of the re-escalation with Iran occurred during the blackout period, and that further escalation is possible before Wednesday. While the uncertainty is greater than usual, Goldman observes that most voters appear unlikely to push for a hike after the softer June inflation data, and some might be especially reluctant to deliver a surprise hike at a meeting without a Summary of Economic Projections out of fear that the market might infer more than they intended (as noted above).

据高盛分析，市场不确定性可能反映出沃什主席的立场与以往存在显著差异，令人质疑历史规律是否仍适用；其本人对加息的态度尚不明确；联邦公开市场委员会近期存在分歧；与伊朗的紧张局势部分升级发生在静默期内；且周三前局势可能进一步恶化。尽管不确定性高于往常，高盛指出，在 6 月通胀数据走软后，多数投票委员似乎不太可能推动加息，部分委员可能尤其不愿在未发布经济预测摘要的会议上意外加息，以免市场过度解读其意图（如前所述）。

Meanwhile, the rates repricing in recent sessions largely reflects a resurgence in energy prices after the conflict between the US and Iran re-escalated, combined with a resilient labor market. While Treasuries rallied Tuesday as oil prices retreated, traders are still fully pricing a quarter-point hike by September and nearly half a point by March.

与此同时，近期利率重新定价主要反映了美伊冲突再度升级后能源价格反弹，叠加劳动力市场韧性。尽管周二国债因油价回落而上涨，交易员仍完全定价 9 月前加息 25 个基点，3 月前累计加息近 50 个基点。

“The market is pricing a very real risk that the Fed hikes,” said Mark Cabana, head of US rates strategy at Bank of America Corp. Investors are “still trying to understand how the Fed will function under a Warsh chair.” Cabana expects the central bank to keep interest rates on hold Wednesday, but attract dissent from regional Fed presidents Lorie Logan and Beth Hammack, according to a Friday research note. But if the “market won’t rule out hike risk, neither will we,” the strategists wrote.

"市场正在定价美联储加息这一非常现实的风险," 美国银行美国利率策略主管马克·卡巴纳表示, 投资者 "仍在试图理解沃什担任主席期间美联储将如何运作。“根据上周五的一份研究报告，卡巴纳预计央行周三将维持利率不变，但会遭到地区联储主席洛里·洛根和贝丝·哈马克的反对。但策略师们写道，如果" 市场不排除加息风险，我们也不会排除。”

Market Reaction 市场反应

For a detailed view on how various asset classes will respond to the Fed (surprise or not), here is a snapshot of various views from across the JPMorgan and Goldman trading desks (more details in the full notes from JPM Market Intel and Goldman Sales and Trading available to pro subs).

如需详细了解各类资产对美联储 (无论是否意外) 的反应，以下是摩根大通和高盛交易部门各种观点的摘要(更多细节见摩根大通市场情报和高盛销售与交易的完整报告，仅供专业订阅用户查阅）。

First, here is the view from JPMorgan Market Intel desk (full note available here).

首先，以下是摩根大通市场报部门的观点（完整报告可在此处获取）。

● FED 50BP HIKES – SPX falls 2% – 4%. Losses would be tempered if the Fed included messaging on this being an ad-hoc hike to get above traditional inflation measures but that this move should not be conflated with a series a hikes. Odds: 1%

美联储加息 50 个基点——标普 500 指数下跌 2% 至 4%。若美联储在声明中强调此次加息是为超越传统通胀指标的临时举措，且不应与系列加息混为一谈，则跌幅可能收窄。概率：1%

· FED 25BP HIKES – SPX falls 1.5% – 2% with potentially double the decline experienced in NDX with RTY likely outperforming on the move lower given the market’s shift to anti-Momentum / anti-AI plays. Odds: 20%

美联储加息 25 个基点——标普 500 指数下跌 1.5% 至 2%，纳斯达克 100 指数跌幅可能翻倍，而罗素 2000 指数因市场转向反动量 / 反人工智能策略，在下跌中可能表现更优。概率：20%

· HAWKISH HOLD – SPX is up 25bp to down 50bp. Our base case as the Fed holds based on the strength of labor markets / growth but likely wanting to stay vigilant on inflation where recent energy market price action suggests another wave of disinflation is coming. A 10bps move in Rates produces a beta to DXY of about 0.5 – 0.6 and 1.5% - 2% for SPX. We could see a Hold lead to a weaker USD given long positioning: Odds: 50%

鹰派按兵不动——标普 500 指数上涨 25 个基点至下跌 50 个基点。我们的基准情景是：美联储基于劳动力市场 / 经济增长的强劲表现维持利率不变，但可能希望保持对通胀的警惕——近期能源市场走势表明新一轮通缩即将到来。利率每变动 10 个基点，对美元指数的贝塔值约为 0.5-0.6，对标普 500 指数的贝塔值为 1.5%-2%。鉴于多头头寸积累，按兵不动可能导致美元走弱。概率：50%

· DOVISH HOLD – SPX gains 50bp – 1%. The best outcome for stocks: Odds: 28%

鸽派按兵不动——标普 500 指数上涨 50 个基点至 1%。对股市最有利的结果。概率：28%

· FED CUT – SPX loses 1% to SPX gains 1.5%. The reason for the potential negative outcome is if the market perceives the Fed has having lost its independence, which would be reflected in higher yields, wider breakevens, higher vol, and weaker stocks: Odds: 1%

美联储降息——标普 500 指数先跌 1%，后涨 1.5%。潜在负面结果的原因在于，若市场认为美联储已丧失独立性，这将反映在收益率上升、盈亏平衡通胀率扩大、波动率升高以及股市走弱上。概率：1%