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From left, US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent, President Donald Trump and commerce secretary Howard Lutnick © Getty Images
左起：美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特、总统唐纳德·特朗普和商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克 © Getty Images
US economy
Trump’s economic challenge: $40tn debt, 6.7% mortgages and $5 diesel
特朗普的经济挑战：40 万亿美元的债务、6.7% 的抵押贷款和 5 美元的柴油
The president’s agenda is under strain as the Iran war pushes up prices and America’s finances worsen
由于伊朗战争推高物价且美国财政恶化，总统的议程面临压力
Myles McCormick and Eva Xiao in New York and Claire Jones in Washington
迈尔斯·麦考密克和伊娃·肖在纽约，克莱尔·琼斯在华盛顿
Published AUG 22 2026
发布日期：2026 年 8 月 22 日
Almost two years since Donald Trump won election pledging to slash prices and fix the US’s public finances, his Iran war and tax cuts have delivered a different outcome: record-high debt, soaring fuel costs and punishing mortgage rates.
唐纳德·特朗普赢得大选并承诺大幅削减物价并修复美国公共财政已近两年，他的伊朗战争和减税却带来了不同的结果：创纪录的高债务、飙升的燃料成本和惩罚性的抵押贷款利率。
Investors pushed yields on long-term US debt to a 19-year high on Tuesday amid alarm at the weight of public borrowing and the war’s inflationary fallout.
由于对公共借贷的压力和战争的通胀影响感到担忧，投资者周二将美国长期债务收益率推高至 19 年来的高点。
Trump’s Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, rushed to soothe markets a day later, unveiling a programme to “at least double” purchases of long-term debt and plans soon to announce steps to tackle the deficit. The latest market intervention did little to lower Treasury yields and pushed the dollar lower.
一天后，特朗普的财政部长斯科特·贝森特急忙安抚市场，公布了一项 "至少增加一倍" 长期债务购买计划，并计划很快宣布解决赤字问题的措施。最新的市场干预对降低美国国债收益率并没有起到多大作用，反而推低了美元汇率。
Bessent insisted on Thursday that markets had “gotten ahead of themselves”. Trump says the economy is “booming”, as shown by stock market highs.
贝森特周四坚称，市场 "有点超前了"。特朗普表示，正如股市高点所表明的那样，经济正在 "蓬勃发展"。
“The president’s fulminations and his administration’s efforts to intervene in currency and bond markets have an air of desperation, which is only making matters worse and turning market sentiment in an even more unfavourable direction,” said Eswar Prasad, economics professor at Cornell University.
康奈尔大学经济学教授埃斯瓦尔·普拉萨德 (Eswar Prasad) 表示：“总统的谴责以及他的政府干预货币和债券市场的努力充满了绝望的气氛，这只会让事情变得更糟，并使市场情绪转向更加不利的方向。”
Scott Bessent speaks on CNBC about the US deficit © CNBC/X
目
斯科特·贝森特 (Scott Bessent) 在 CNBC 上谈论美国赤字 © CNBC/X
The market tumult underlines how Trump’s economic agenda risks unravelling just as November’s midterm elections loom into view. Polls show Democrats leading the president’s Republicans on their handling of the economy.
市场动荡突显出，在 11 月中期选举临近之际，特朗普的经济议程面临着瓦解的风险。民意调查显示，民主党在处理经济问题上领先于总统的共和党。
Government debt hit a record $40tn this week, with borrowing rising at its fastest pace outside the pandemic era as federal spending outstrips income.
政府债务本周达到创纪录的 40 万亿美元，由于联邦支出超过收入，借款以大流行时代之外最快的速度增长。
The deficit fell only slightly in the 2025 fiscal year to 5.8 per cent of GDP, from 6.4 per cent in 2024. Trump’s tax cuts are projected to add substantially to deficits in the years ahead, despite cuts to social safety-net programmes including Medicaid health coverage and food assistance for America’s poor.
2025 财年赤字仅小幅下降，从 2024 年占 GDP 的 6.4% 降至 5.8%。尽管削减了包括医疗补助医疗保险和针对美国穷人的粮食援助在内的社会安全网计划，但特朗普的减税预计将在未来几年大幅增加赤字。
“We continue to outspend — [and] the spending demands are even greater with the war,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG US.
毕马威美国首席经济学家黛安·斯旺克 (Diane Swonk) 表示:“我们继续超支，而且战争时期的支出需求甚至更大。”
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Bessent, who pledged to lower the deficit to 3 per cent by the end of Trump’s second term, on Thursday insisted there was a “very, very good chance” that it had now peaked. He said economic growth and future tariff duties would boost revenues.
贝森特承诺在特朗普第二任期结束时将赤字降低至 3%，周四坚称赤字现在 "非常非常有可能" 达到顶峰。他表示，经济增长和未来的关税将增加收入。
Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, a right-leaning think-tank, said deficit reduction would entail tough political choices for Trump, including cuts to Medicare and social security.
右倾智库美国企业研究所经济政策研究主任迈克尔·斯特兰表示，削减赤字将给特朗普带来艰难的政治选择，包括削减医疗保险和社会保障。
“I hope what secretary Bessent is saying is true,” Strain said. “But there are some major questions about how it might work.”
"我希望贝森特国务卿所说的是真的，" 斯特兰说。“但它如何运作还存在一些重大问题。”
The Treasury did not respond to a request for comment.
财政部没有回应置评请求。
On top of the growing debt mountain, Trump’s Iran war is pushing up inflation and has ruined the president’s vow to halve energy prices and drive down basic consumer costs.
除了日益严重的债务山外，特朗普的伊朗战争正在推高通货膨胀，并破坏了总统将能源价格减半和降低基本消费成本的誓言。
Petrol prices have jumped by about 40 per cent since the war broke out to $4.11 a gallon on Friday. Diesel, the fuel that moves goods through the US economy, has risen by a similar margin to $5.58 a gallon.
自战争爆发以来，汽油价格已上涨约 40%，周五升至每加仑 4.11 美元。柴油是美国经济中运输货物的燃料，其涨幅也类似，达到每加仑 5.58 美元。
Source: AAA
The average diesel price in Trump’s second term is now higher than under Joe Biden. Mortgage rates are also now rising briskly, even if they remain below the peak seen under Trump’s predecessor.
特朗普第二任期内的平均柴油价格现在高于乔·拜登时期。抵押贷款利率现在也在迅速上升，尽管仍低于特朗普前任时期的峰值。
The 30-year mortgage this week hit 6.65 per cent, up from 5.98 per cent before the war in late February.
本周 30 年期抵押贷款利率达到 6.65%，高于 2 月底战前的 5.98%。
“As rates dropped over the final quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, the political pressure on the administration to tackle housing affordability was less,” said Jaret Seiberg of TD Securities, adding that the White House now has “no choice” but to focus on bringing down rates “even if the relief is temporary”.
道明证券的 Jaret Seiberg 表示："随着 2025 年最后一个季度和 2026 年第一季度利率下降，政府在解决住房负担能力方面面临的政治压力较小。“他补充说，白宫现在" 别无选择”，只能专注于降低利率，“即使救济是暂时的”。
30-year fixed rate mortgage (%)
Source: St Louis Federal Reserve
Annual consumer price inflation hit a three-year high of 4.2 per cent in May before dropping to 3.4 per cent in July.
年度消费者价格通胀在 5 月份触及 4.2% 的三年高位，然后在 7 月份降至 3.4%。
Federal Reserve officials worry that persistently high inflation will become embedded in the economy, but they have opted against raising interest rates, fuelling market jitters over their willingness to contain inflation.
美联储官员担心持续的高通胀将融入经济，但他们选择不加息，这加剧了市场对其遏制通胀意愿的不安。
The disruption to Middle Eastern energy supplies from the war has overshadowed the modest growth in the US’s own oil output, which Trump had championed as a way to curb prices for Americans.
战争对中东能源供应的破坏掩盖了美国自身石油产量的小幅增长，而特朗普曾将其视为遏制美国人价格的一种方式。
Art Berman, a Houston-based energy consultant, said Trump’s war had “squandered” the US’s energy advantage.
休斯顿能源顾问阿特·伯曼表示，特朗普的战争 "浪费了" 美国的能源优势。
“My belief is that this administration — and probably every administration back to Franklin Roosevelt — is energy blind. They just don’t get any of this stuff.”
“我的信念是，本届政府——可能还有富兰克林·罗斯福以来的每一届政府——都是能源盲目的。他们就是没有得到任何这些东西。”
The US remains the world’s biggest oil producer, although the federal Energy Information Administration expects output to rise by just 200,000 barrels a day this year. About 20mn b/d of flows through the Strait of Hormuz have been shut in from the Middle East during Trump’s war.
美国仍然是世界上最大的石油生产国，尽管联邦能源情报署预计今年的产量将仅增加 20 万桶 / 日。在特朗普战争期间，来自中东的约 2000 万桶 / 日通过霍尔木兹海峡的石油流量被封锁。
The debt burden, high borrowing costs and persistent strain of costly fuel and food have weighed on US consumer sentiment, which hovers at record lows. Polls also show voters now think they are worse off under Trump’s handling of the economy.
债务负担、高额借贷成本以及昂贵的燃料和食品的持续紧张给美国消费者信心带来压力，消费者信心徘徊在历史低点。民意调查还显示，选民现在认为，在特朗普对经济的处理下，他们的境况变得更糟。
Index of consumer sentiment
Source: University of Michigan
Economic growth is still strong, thanks to American consumer spending and a rush by Big Tech to pour money into AI infrastructure. But GDP expansion last year of 2.1 per cent and an annualised rate of 1.5 per cent in the second quarter of 2026 are well below the 5-6 per cent predicted by commerce secretary Howard Lutnick or the 3 per cent targeted by Bessent.
由于美国消费者支出和大型科技公司纷纷向人工智能基础设施投入资金，经济增长仍然强劲。但去年 GDP 增长 2.1%，2026 年第二季度年化增长率为 1.5%，远低于商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克 (Howard Lutnick) 预测的 5-6% 或贝森特 (Bessent) 的 3% 目标。
On Thursday, the Treasury secretary said the US was still poised to “grow our way out” of its debt hole.
周四，财政部长表示，美国仍准备 "通过增长摆脱" 债务困境。
Additional reporting by Akila Quinio in New York
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