Markets
全球债务下滑，但并非 2022 年式溃败
Japan’s economy grew less than expected in the second quarter.
日本经济第二季度增长低于预期。
Photographer: Kiyoshi Ota/Bloomberg
By Ruth Carson and Masaki Kondo
September 2, 2026 at 2:15 PM GMT+8
Updated on September 2, 2026 at 6:00 PM GMT+8
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● The current selloff in global bond markets has driven yields to multi-year highs, but the move is just a fraction of the one seen in late 2022. 当前全球债券市场的抛售已将收益率推升至多年高位，但此次波动的幅度仅相当于 2022 年末那轮行情的一小部分。
· Global government bond yields have risen 17 basis points on a rolling 20-day cumulative basis, and bonds have lost 4.2% this year, compared with a 23% plunge in 2022.
全球政府债券收益率在滚动 20 日累计基础上已上升 17 个基点，债券今年下跌 4.2%，而 2022 年曾暴跌 23%。
● The relatively modest move in yields so far is offering some reassurance to seasoned market watchers, with some saying that bonds are becoming worthy of consideration by income-oriented investors at current yields.
迄今为止，收益率的相对温和波动令经验丰富的市场观察人士略感安心，一些人士表示，在当前的收益率水平下，债券已开始值得以收益为导向的投资者予以考虑。
The selloff sweeping global bond markets looks painful, but it’s nothing compared with the rout four years ago, when soaring inflation forced central banks into a series of rapid-fire interest-rate hikes.
席卷全球债券市场的这轮抛售看似惨烈，但与四年前那场溃败相比则算不上什么，当时通胀飙升迫使各国央行连环快速加息。
The difference is scale. While the latest pullback has driven yields to multi-year highs in the world’s biggest markets, the move is just a fraction of the one seen in late 2022. Global government bond yields have risen 17 basis points on a rolling 20-day cumulative basis, compared with 62 basis points back then, data compiled by Bloomberg show. On a peak-to-trough basis, bonds have lost 4.2% this year – a far cry from the 23% plunge seen in 2022.
差别在于规模。虽然最近的回调已将全球最大债券市场的收益率推至多年高位，但这一变动的幅度仅是 2022 年末所见的零头。彭博汇编的数据显示，全球政府债券收益率在滚动 20 个交易日累计基础上上升了 17 个基点，而当时则上升了 62 个基点。从峰值到低谷计算，债券今年已下跌 4.2%——与 2022 年 23% 的暴跌相去甚远。
While the current selloff is hardly showing any sign of letting up, the relatively modest move in yields so far is offering some reassurance to seasoned market watchers.
尽管当前的抛售潮几乎没有显示出任何缓解的迹象，但迄今为止收益率相对温和的变动，给经验丰富的市场观察人士带来了一些安慰。
“While today’s volatility may feel disruptive, it is also improving the long-term opportunity set across fixed income markets,” said Mike Goosay, CIO and global head of fixed income at Principal Asset Management. The move higher in yields is “creasing opportunities that have been largely absent for much of the past decade.”
Principal Asset Management 的首席投资官兼固定收益全球主管 Mike Goosay 表示："尽管今日的市场波动可能令人感到不安，但它同时也在改善固定收益市场整体的长期机遇。“收益率上行正在" 创造过去十年大部分时间里基本不存在的机会。”
Bond Drawdowns Are Far Smaller Than in 2022
Maximum calendar-year drawdowns (%)
Note: 2026 through latest available data
Source: Bloomberg
Bloomberg
The 2022 rout had pushed global bonds into their first bear market in a generation. That came as central banks led by the Federal Reserve embarked on the most synchronized and rapid policy tightening in half a century, battling an inflation surge fueled by the post-pandemic rebound in demand and compounded by the war in Ukraine.
2022 年的溃败使全球债券市场陷入了数十年来首次熊市。此前，以美联储为首的各国央行开启了半个世纪以来最为同步且最为迅速的政策紧缩，以应对通胀飙升——这一通胀由疫后需求反弹所助推，又因乌克兰战争而进一步加剧。
While inflation is a key factor this time as well – given the Iran war and its impact on energy prices – other forces are adding to the pressure on bonds.
尽管此次通胀同样是一个关键因素——考虑到伊朗战争及其对能源价格的影响——但其他力量也在加大对债券的压力。
WATCH: Highlights from Bloomberg Television as contributors shed light on how rising energy prices are driving bond yields higher across markets and traders reposition in anticipation of further challenges. Source: Bloomberg
观看：彭博电视精彩片段，评论员解读能源价格上涨如何推动各市场债券收益率走高，交易员则因预期更多挑战而调整仓位。来源：彭博
Heavy government spending in major markets like Japan, the UK, France and the US is keeping debt issuance elevated, prompting investors to seek more compensation to own longer-maturity debt. At the same time, the vast amount of funds needed to finance the AI boom is intensifying the competition for capital and helping push borrowing costs higher.
日本、英国、法国及美国等主要市场的政府支出庞大，持续推高债务发行规模，促使投资者要求更高的补偿才愿持有较长期限的债券。与此同时，为人工智能热潮融资所需的巨额资金正加剧资本争夺，进一步推升借贷成本。
Even so, bond losses have been more contained in part because yields are rising from much higher levels, providing investors with a bigger income cushion against falling prices. By contrast, yields were near historically low levels heading into 2022.
即便如此，债券损失仍相对可控，部分原因在于收益率是从更高水平上升的，为投资者提供了更大的收入缓冲来抵御价格下跌。相比之下，2022 年初收益率接近历史低位。
“Maybe take a chill pill,” said Stephen Miller, a consultant at investment management firm GSFM in Sydney who has covered debt markets since 1983. “I can’t say that bonds are a screening buy,” he said, adding that still “at these sorts of yields, they do become worthy of some consideration by an income-oriented investor.”
"或许该冷静一下，" 悉尼投资管理公司 GSFM 的顾问斯蒂芬·米勒表示，他自 1983 年以来一直关注债务市场。"我不能说债券现在是抢手货，" 他说，但又补充道，“在这样的收益率水平下，它们确实值得以收入为导向的投资者加以考虑。”
Bonds in the Bloomberg Global Treasury Total Return Index have carried an average coupon of 2.68% this year, up from 1.84% in 2022.
今年，彭博全球国债总回报指数中的债券平均票息率为 2.68%，高于 2022 年的 1.84%。
Global Bond Yield Rise Remains Contained
20-day cumulative change in yields
Government bonds Government bonds over 10 years
Source: Bloomberg
Bloomberg
“It’s not nearly as bad for every economy as the bond market would make out,” said Kerry Craig, a global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management in Melbourne. And in some markets like Australia, investors may even be overestimating how much the central bank will hike, he said.
摩根资产管理驻墨尔本的全球市场策略师克里·克雷格表示："对每个经济体来说，情况远没有债券市场所暗示的那么糟糕。" 他还指出，在澳大利亚等一些市场，投资者甚至可能高估了央行加息的幅度。
Recent economic reports lend support to such a view. In the US, some key releases have disappointed, with payrolls declining in July and retail sales unexpectedly falling. Japan’s economy also grew less than expected in the second quarter.
近期经济报告支持了这一观点。在美国，一些关键数据的发布令人失望，7 月份就业人数下降，零售销售意外下滑。日本经济第二季度的增长也低于预期。
To be sure, no one is firmly calling the peak in yields just yet.
诚然，目前还没有人坚定地宣称收益率已达峰值。
The selloff in bonds may have room to run as energy-driven inflation keeps rate hike bets in play and heavy debt issuance adds upward pressure on yields. Rising Japanese yields are another potential source of strain as they risk drawing global capital back home.
债券抛售可能仍有进一步空间，因为能源驱动的通胀使加息押注持续存在，而大量债券发行又给收益率带来上行压力。日本国债收益率上升则是另一个潜在压力源，因为这可能吸引全球资本回流本土。
The yield on 10-year US Treasuries – a global benchmark for borrowing costs – advanced to 4.81% on Wednesday, the highest level since late 2023, heaping more pressure on debt in other developed markets. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield on Tuesday touched 3% for the first time this century.
10 年期美国国债收益率——全球借款成本的基准——周三升至 4.81%，为 2023 年末以来的最高水平，给其他发达市场的债务带来更大压力。日本 10 年期政府债券收益率周二触及 3%，为本世纪首次。
Yields on European bonds also surged on Wednesday. The UK 10-year rate jumped six basis points to 5.28%, the highest since 2007, while the German equivalent jumped nearly as much to 3.39%, the highest since 2011.
欧洲债券收益率周三同样大幅飙升。英国 10 年期国债收益率上升 6 个基点至 5.28%，为 2007 年以来最高；德国同期国债收益率涨幅与之相当，升至 3.39%，为 2011 年以来最高。
Global Bond Yield Volatility Has Eased From 2026 Highs Sixty-day rolling annualized volatility of daily yield changes
Government bonds Government bonds over 10 years
Source: Bloomberg
Bloomberg
Still, lower market swings also suggest investors are taking the latest selloff more in their stride. The yield volatility for global government debt has fallen to 37 basis points from a peak of 56 basis points in May. The measure surged in 2022 before peaking at about 92 basis points in March the following year.
尽管如此，市场波动降低也表明投资者正更加从容地应对最新的抛售潮。全球政府债券的收益率波动率已从 5 月份 56 个基点的峰值回落至 37 个基点。该指标在 2022 年飙升，随后于次年 3 月达到约 92 个基点的峰值。
“Negative factors for bonds have been steadily building, but so far there has been no decisive catalyst strong enough to force investors out of the market,” said Ayako Sera, senior market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank Ltd. in Tokyo.
东京三井住友信托银行高级市场策略师 Ayako Sera 表示：“债券的负面因素一直在累积，但迄今为止，还没有出现足以迫使投资者离场的决定性催化剂。”
Read more: Nomura’s Wang Sees Treasury Selloff as Logical Term-Premium Move
阅读更多：野村王认为美债抛售是合理的期限溢价变动。
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