Markets
BBVA 表示，套利交易资金可能从日元转向人民币
By Bloomberg News
September 3, 2026 at 3:17 PM GMT+8
如果日本央行进一步加息，人民币作为日元替代品的吸引力可能会增强。
● The prospect of further BOJ rate increases may make the yuan cheaper to borrow than the yen in the fourth quarter, potentially drawing carry traders from around the world.
日本央行进一步加息的前景可能会使人民币在第四季度的借贷成本低于日元，从而可能吸引来自世界各地的套利交易者。
● The bigger question is whether the PBOC will tolerate such trades that can weaken the yuan and undermine its tight grip on the currency.
更大的问题是，中国央行是否会容忍此类可能导致人民币贬值并削弱其对人民币汇率的严格控制的交易。
The Chinese yuan’s appeal may grow as an alternative to the yen for carry trades if the Bank of Japan makes further interest-rate hikes as widely expected, according to BBVA SA.
BBVA SA 表示，如果日本央行按照普遍预期进一步加息，人民币作为日元替代品的吸引力可能会增强。
“I believe it’s worth watching the risk of the offshore yuan replacing the yen as the main Asian funding currency for carry trades,” Dariusz Kowalczyk, head of cross-asset strategy for Asia at the Spanish bank.
“我认为，离岸人民币取代日元成为套利交易主要亚洲融资货币的风险值得关注，”西班牙银行亚洲跨资产策略主管 Dariusz Kowalczyk 表示。
The prospect of further BOJ rate increases may make the yuan cheaper to borrow than the yen in the fourth quarter, potentially drawing carry traders from around the world, Kowalczyk said. A BOJ board member on Wednesday raised the possibility of outsize or back-to-back rate increases, spurring a rally in the yen.
科瓦尔奇克表示，日本央行进一步加息的前景可能会使人民币在第四季度的借贷成本低于日元，从而可能吸引来自世界各地的套利交易者。日本央行董事会成员周三提出了大幅或连续加息的可能性，刺激日元上涨。
For decades, Japan’s negative or ultra-low interest rates made the yen a favorite currency for carry trades, a strategy in which an investor borrows in a currency with a relatively low interest rate and invests the proceeds in another offering a higher return. While the BOJ has hiked rates three times since the beginning of 2025, the People’s Bank of China has kept borrowing low to support its economy.
几十年来，日本的负利率或超低利率使日元成为套利交易最喜欢的货币，在套利交易中，投资者借入利率相对较低的货币，并将收益投资于另一种提供更高回报的货币。尽管日本央行自 2025 年初以来已加息三次，但中国人民银行仍保持低借贷水平以支持经济。
Read more: What Is the Carry Trade That’s Weakening the Yen?: Explainer
阅读更多: 什么是导致日元走弱的套利交易?：解释者
Although turnover in the offshore yuan market is smaller than that in the yen market, it’s deep enough to meet demand for carry trades, Kowalczyk said. But the bigger question is whether the PBOC will tolerate such trades that can weaken the yuan and undermine its tight grip on the currency, he said.
Kowalczyk 表示，尽管离岸人民币市场的成交量小于日元市场，但其深度足以满足套利交易的需求。但他表示，更大的问题是，中国央行是否会容忍此类可能导致人民币贬值并削弱其对人民币汇率的严格控制的交易。
Even though the yuan is supported by exporters’ dollar sales, a surge in offshore yuan demand to fund carry trade would have a substantial impact on the currency, Kowalczyk said, adding that it may help slow the yuan’s gains over the medium to long run.
科瓦尔奇克表示，尽管人民币受到出口商美元销售的支撑，但为套利交易提供资金的离岸人民币需求激增将对人民币产生重大影响，并补充说，从中长期来看，这可能有助于减缓人民币升势。
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