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随着日本收益率触及关键门槛，全球债券溃败加剧
By Kevin Buckland 凯文·巴克兰
September 1, 2026 3:27 PM GMT+8 · Updated 2 hours ago
U.S. dollar, Euro, Yen, Pound, Turkish Lira, Yuan banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 24, 2026. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
这张 2026 年 3 月 24 日拍摄的插图中可以看到美元、欧元、日元、英镑、土耳其里拉、人民币纸币。
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Summary 概括
· Middle East uncertainty strokes inflation worries as oil rises
随着油价上涨，中东不确定性引发通胀担忧
● Traders bet central banks need to raise rates faster
交易员押注央行需要更快加息
● Higher JGB yields may keep Japanese from investing overseas
日本国债收益率上升可能会阻止日本人进行海外投资
● Tech bond rush adds to global debt supply
科技债券热潮增加了全球债务供应
TOKYO, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Japan’s benchmark 10-year bond yield struck the key 3% barrier for the first time since 1996 on Tuesday, amid a deepening global debt selloff as traders fret about oil-driven inflation, monetary tightening and worsening fiscal conditions.
路透东京 9 月 1 日 - 周二，日本基准 10 年期国债收益率自 1996 年以来首次触及 3% 的关键关口，交易员担心石油驱动的通胀、货币紧缩和财政状况恶化，导致全球债务抛售加剧。
With the Middle East crisis stoking price pressures globally, yields have been spiking from Tokyo and Sydney to New York and London as investors anticipate the need for central banks to raise interest rates.
随着中东危机在全球范围内加剧价格压力，由于投资者预计央行需要加息，从东京和悉尼到纽约和伦敦的收益率一直在飙升。
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通过交易日通讯了解全球市场。在这里注册。
The bond market is also under pressure from a deluge of issuance as hyperscalers aggressively raise money to fund the AI boom, in an environment where the U.S. debt load has passed $40 trillion and Japan’s ministries are likely to request a record amount in an initial budget for next fiscal year. Yields rise when bond prices fall.
在美国债务负担已超过 40 万亿美元、日本各部门可能在下一财年的初始预算中要求创纪录金额的环境下，债券市场也面临着大量发行的压力，因为超大规模企业积极筹集资金为人工智能热潮提供资金。当债券价格下跌时，收益率上升。
The sharp rise in yields creates a conundrum for policymakers with markets now extremely sensitive about perceptions of fiscal profligacy.
收益率的急剧上升给政策制定者带来了难题，因为市场现在对财政挥霍的看法极其敏感。
For Japan in particular, it increases the cost of servicing the developed world’s biggest debt pile at a time when Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is planning aggressive investment.
特别是对于日本来说，在首相高市早苗计划进行积极投资之际，它增加了偿还发达国家最大债务的成本。
“Investors are increasingly demanding greater compensation to own duration as sovereign issuance and corporate funding needs compete for the same pool of capital,” said Masahiko Loo, senior fixed income strategist at State Street
Investment Management in Tokyo.
道富投资管理公司驻东京的高级固定收益策略师 Masahiko Loo 表示：“随着主权发行和企业融资需求争夺同一资金池，投资者越来越多地要求对自己的久期给予更大的补偿。”
“Bond investors are less worried about growth and increasingly focused on inflation and supply.”
“债券投资者不再那么担心经济增长，而是越来越关注通胀和供应。”
The 10-year Japanese government bond yield reached 3% for the first time since September 1996, while the five-year rate hit a record high 2.26% and the two-year yield notched a 31-year peak at 1.795%.
日本 10 年期国债收益率自 1996 年 9 月以来首次达到 3%，五年期国债收益率创历史新高 2.26%，两年期国债收益率创 31 年新高 1.795%。
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields also pushed to the highest since January of last year at 4.786% in Tokyo trading hours.
在东京交易时段，美国 10 年期国债收益率也升至去年 1 月以来的最高点 4.786%。
Australian IO-year yields notched their sharpest rise in five months, with traders attributing part of that to the market’s sensitivity to Japanese demand amid speculation higher local yields mean fewer Japanese buyers of Australian debt.
澳大利亚 10 年期国债收益率创下五个月来的最大涨幅，交易员将部分原因归因于市场对日本需求的敏感性，因为他们猜测当地收益率上升意味着澳大利亚国债的日本买家减少。
European yields also climbed in early trading on Tuesday, with Germany’s 10-year yield, the benchmark for the euro zone at 3.34% its highest since 2011.
周二早盘欧洲国债收益率也有所攀升，欧元区基准德国 10 年期国债收益率为 3.34%，创 2011 年以来最高水平。
‘REGIME CHANGE’
“政权更迭”
Seen as a psychologically significant threshold, the rise in the 10-year yield to 3%, a fresh three-decade peak, could prompt investors to rethink how they see Japanese government debt, long considered a stable global benchmark.
10 年期国债收益率上升至 3%，创下三年来的新高，被视为一个心理上的重要门槛，可能会促使投资者重新思考如何看待长期以来被视为稳定的全球基准的日本政府债务。
“A further rise in JGB yields would make carry trades less attractive and could drive a gradual re-allocation into Japanese assets,” said Prashant Newnaha, senior rates strategist at TD Securities in Singapore.
新加坡道明证券高级利率策略师 Prashant Newnaha 表示：“日本国债收益率的进一步上升将降低套利交易的吸引力，并可能推动日本资产逐步重新配置。”
“It’s a genuine regime change. JGBs were the anchor for global fixed income for long time. Now it has flipped.”
“这是一次真正的政权更迭。日本国债长期以来一直是全球固定收益的支柱。现在它已经发生了逆转。”
Traders have cemented bets for the Bank of Japan to raise rates at its meeting this month, with comments from policymakers sounding increasingly hawkish over recent weeks, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has also ramped up pressure by urging the Japanese central bank to tighten policy.
交易员们加大了对日本央行在本月会议上加息的押注，最近几周政策制定者的言论听起来越来越强硬，而美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特也加大了压力，敦促日本央行收紧政策。
The U.S. Federal Reserve is also primed for near-term tightening after Chair Kevin Warsh struck a decidedly hawkish posture at the annual Jackson Hole
symposium.
在主席凯文·沃什在杰克逊霍尔年度研讨会上明确采取鹰派立场后，美联储也准备实施近期紧缩政策。
“All global yields selling off are partly reflecting the sell-off in the key, most-watched markets,” including the U.S. and Japan, said Andrew Lilley, chief rates strategist at Barrenjoey in Sydney.
悉尼 Barrenjoey 首席利率策略师安德鲁·利利 (Andrew Lilley) 表示，“全球所有国债收益率的抛售都部分反映了最受关注的关键市场的抛售”，其中包括美国和日本。
“I think really most of this sell-off has been a re-assessment of Fed policy,” amid some market concern that central banks may already be behind the curve on tightening, he added.
他补充说，“我认为实际上大部分抛售都是对美联储政策的重新评估”，一些市场担心央行可能已经落后于紧缩政策。
“You don’t want to be in a state where if you don’t deliver a tightening, the market delivers half of one for you, because they think that you’re running a big risk.”
“如果你不实施紧缩政策，市场就会为你提供一半的紧缩政策，因为他们认为你面临着很大的风险，你不希望出现这种情况。”
Reporting by Kevin Buckland; Additional reporting by Alun John; Editing by Sam Holmes
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
我们的标准：汤森路透信任原则。
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