Politics | Explainer
特朗普的战争为何未能击垮伊朗经济?
A street vendor in Tehran in August. Photographer: Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images
By Golnar Motevalli and Arsalan Shahla
September 1, 2026 at 8:44 PM GMT+8
Takeaways
● Iran’s economy was under strain before the US and Israel launched their war, with problems including
negative growth, soaring inflation and a currency crisis.
在美国和以色列发动战争之前，伊朗经济已承受压力，面临负增长、通胀飙升和货币危机等问题。
● The war has damaged Iran’s infrastructure and killed thousands of people, with the US naval blockade of Iranian ports squeezing its revenue from the sale of oil and other products.
战争已对伊朗的基础设施造成破坏，并导致数千人丧生，同时美国对伊朗港口实施的海上封锁，使其石油及其他产品的出口收入受到严重挤压。
· The US has launched “Operation Economic Outcast” to increase economic pressure on Iran, but its success is uncertain due to Iran’s experience outstanding international sanctions and the potential for retailation from countries like China.
美国已发起“经济孤立行动”以加大对伊朗的经济压力，但由于伊朗拥有抵御国际制裁的经验，且可能面临中国等国家的报复，该行动能否成功仍不确定。
Iran’s economy was already under strain before the US and Israel launched their war on the Islamic Republic, grappling with negative growth, soaring inflation and a currency crisis. Those problems were compounded by strikes on the nation’s civilian and industrial infrastructure and the US naval blockade of Iranian ports.
在美以对伊朗伊斯兰共和国发动战争之前，伊朗经济已面临压力，负增长、通胀飙升及货币危机接踵而至。而对该国民用及工业基础设施的打击，加上美国对伊朗港口的海上封锁，使这些问题进一步加剧。
Even so, Iran has endured six months of conflict without its economy collapsing. As the war drags on, the Trump administration is seeking to crank up the economic pressure to force Iran to capitale and release its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz. It has threatened economic punishment against any country that continues to do business with Iran.
即便如此，伊朗在六个月的冲突中经济并未崩溃。随着战事持续，特朗普政府正寻求加大经济施压，迫使伊朗屈服，并放弃对霍尔木兹海峡的扼控。美国已威胁要对任何继续与伊朗做生意的国家实施经济惩罚。
Whether this strategy will succeed is an open question. Iran has a high tolerance for pain thanks to decades of experience outstanding multiple layers of international sanctions, and countries with ties to Tehran have so far shrugged off US warnings.
这一策略能否成功尚属未知。伊朗凭借数十年来承受多重国际制裁的历练，对痛苦的忍耐力极高，而与德黑兰有联系的国家迄今对美国的警告不以为意。
What were economic conditions in Iran like before the war?
战前伊朗的经济状况如何？
Iranians have for years contended with high inflation, which has made food staples such as eggs, rice and meat increasingly unaffordable. People have changed their consumption habits, in some cases replacing red meat and chicken with cheaper alternatives such as soybean meal.
伊朗民众多年来一直承受着高通胀的压力，这使得鸡蛋、大米和肉类等主食越来越难以负担。人们改变了消费习惯，有时用豆粕等更便宜的替代品来替代红肉和鸡肉。
The price increases have been driven by a dramatic decline in Iran’s export revenues and foreign currency inflows since the first Trump administration reimposed tough US sanctions. A tight supply of US dollars has eroded the value of the rial and made imports more expensive. Beyond sanctions, the economy has been weighed down by corruption and government mismanagement.
物价上涨的主要原因是，自特朗普首届政府重新实施严厉的美国制裁以来，伊朗的出口收入和外汇流入大幅下降。美元的紧缺使里亚尔贬值，进口商品变得更加昂贵。除制裁外，腐败和政府管理不善也拖累了伊朗经济。
Evolution of retail prices in the Tehran market for a selection of staple goods
Note: Data is through July 2026
Source: United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization
Bloomberg
How has the war made things worse?
The US and Israeli bombardments damaged infrastructure across the country – including homes, hospitals, schools and fuel depots – and killed thousands of people. Six weeks of strikes prior to a ceasefire agreed to in April caused around $270 billion worth of economic damage, according to the Iranian government. The International Monetary Fund forecast in July that Iran’s gross domestic product will fall by 5.4% this year, the biggest contraction in decades.
美国和以色列的轰炸破坏了该国各地的基础设施——包括房屋、医院、学校和燃料库——并导致数千人死亡。据伊朗政府称，在 4 月达成停火协议之前，持续六周的打击造成了约 2700 亿美元的经济损失。国际货币基金组织 7 月预测，伊朗今年国内生产总值将下降 5.4%，创下数十年来最大萎缩幅度。
The rial has come under continued pressure, fueling inflation. The currency bit an all-time low against the dollar in August, while year-on-year inflation reached 87.9% in July, according to the Statistical Center of Iran. More households have turned to credit in the absence of cash and there’s been a boom in installment plans to pay for essential goods and services, including groceries.
里亚尔持续承压，加剧了通货膨胀。据伊朗统计中心数据，8 月份该货币兑美元汇率跌至历史新低，而 7 月份同比通胀率达到 87.9%。由于现金短缺，更多家庭转向信贷消费，包括食品杂货在内的基本商品和服务分期付款计划也出现蓬勃增长。
Iran’s Currency Has Been Under Pressure
Rial-to-dollar parallel exchange rate
Source: Bonbast.com
Bloomberg
What’s been the impact of the US blockade?
Iran’s exports out of the Persian Gulf have effectively been severed, squeezing its revenue from the sale of oil, petrochemicals and industrial products such as steel.
伊朗经由波斯湾的出口实际上已被切断，导致其石油、石化产品及钢铁等工业制品的销售收入受到严重挤压。
New crude shipments from Iran have all but dried up. As of mid-August, at least 41 million barrels of Iranian crude were stuck on vessels inside the Gulf, according to commodities data firm Kpler.While more than 80 million barrels were on ships outside the blockade zone, most of them were already committed to buyers, wrote Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler.
来自伊朗的新一轮原油运输几乎已完全枯竭。据大宗商品数据公司 Kpler 称，截至 8 月中旬，至少有 4100 万桶伊朗原油滞留在海湾内的油轮上。Kpler 原油分析主管霍马永·法拉赫沙希写道，虽然封锁区域外的船只上装载着超过 8000 万桶原油，但其中大部分已经预定给了买家。
China is the biggest importer of Iran’s crude, buying around 90% of its oil exports. “Revenues are typically repatriated only one to two months after discharge at Chinese ports,” said Falakshahi. “At current discharge rates, this oil-on-water could sustain a revenue stream for another five to six months before export receipts effectively disappear.”
中国是伊朗原油的最大进口国，购买其约 90% 的石油出口量。“收入通常在抵达中国港口卸货后仅一至两个月汇回，”法拉赫沙希表示。“按当前的卸货速度，这些在途原油可维持收入流再约五至六个月，之后出口收入将实际归零。”
USS Rafael Peralta during US blockade operations near an Iranian-flagged ship, in April. Source: US Navy
伊朗整体出口的下滑压缩了其外汇收入与硬通货膨胀渠道，而这对稳定里亚尔汇率和通胀、以及保障供应该国工业部门所需的原材料进口至关重要。央行行长在八月份表示，伊朗自一月份以来便预判到战争风险而持续囤积外汇，目前供应足以采购必需品和药品。
美国海军“拉斐尔·佩拉尔塔”号于 4 月在悬挂伊朗国旗的船只附近执行封锁行动。来源：美国海军
The decline in Iran’s overall exports has squeezed its foreign-exchange revenue and access to hard currency, which is crucial to both stabilizing the rial and inflation, as well as securing imports of raw materials that supply the country’s industrial sector. The governor of the central bank said in August that Iran had been stockpiling foreign currency since January in anticipation of the war and that there was enough supply to procure essential goods and medicines.
随着美国封锁切断伊朗的进口运输，该国正面临日益严重的燃料短缺问题。官方的《城市报》报道称，由于担心油价上涨，德黑兰的加油站前出现了长队。伊朗实行分级配额制度，为每辆车提供每月定额的折扣汽油。过去提高油价的举措曾引发致命抗议。
As the US blockade chokes off inbound shipments to Iran, the country is facing mounting fuel shortages. The state-run Hamshahri newspaper reported that there were long queues at petrol stations in Tehran because of fears of price hikes. Iran has a tiered quota system that provides each car with a monthly allowance of discounted gasoline. Past efforts to raise prices have led to deadly protests.
美国的新经济孤立策略会奏效吗？
Iran Imports Gasoline to Make Up for Domestic Production Deficit Consumption versus production capacity
Note: Data for 2026 reported on Aug. 15
Sources: Iran Parliamentary Research Center, Islamic Republic News Agency, Shana, Mehr News Agency
Bloomberg
Will the US’s new economic isolation strategy work?
特朗普政府在八月下旬启动了“经济放逐行动”，旨在“切断维系伊朗政权生存的经济命脉”。然而，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特仅以所谓次级制裁威胁伊朗的贸易伙伴，并未真正实施惩罚。尽管对数十家被指控协助与伊朗进行商业活动的小型且知名度较低的企业和个人施加了新的制裁，但伊朗石油的主要中国买家以及为这些采购提供便利的银行却未受波及。
The Trump administration launched “Operation Economic Outcast” in late August, aiming to “sever the economic lifelines that sustain the Iranian regime.” But US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent only threatened to hit
Iran’s trading partners with so-called secondary sanctions, rather than actually penalizing them. While new sanctions were imposed on dozens of small, lesser-known companies and individuals accused of facilitating business with Iran, the major Chinese buyers of Iranian oil and the banks that make those purchases possible were spared.
最初宣布的制裁“将加大对伊朗的压力”，全球反应：特朗普对伊朗的“D 日”尚未登陆海滩（1），彭博经济研究指出，但除非美国愿意针对伊朗最大的石油客户中国，否则“贝森特威胁的‘经济窒息’不足以扼杀德黑兰。”
The initial sanctions announced “will dial up the pain on Iran,” GLOBAL REACT: Trump’s Iran ‘D-Day’ Hasn’t Stormed Beaches (I) to Bloomberg Economics, but unless the US is willing to target Iran’s largest oil customer, China, “Bessent’s threatened ‘economic asphyxiation’ won’t be enough to strangle Tehran.”
对华实施次级制裁可能会破坏美国延长关税休战的努力，并引发北京的报复。中国已警告称，其与伊朗的关系“不应受到干扰或破坏”，并将采取“一切必要措施”维护自身利益。
Hitting China with secondary sanctions could jeopardize US efforts to extend a tariff trace and trigger retaliation from Beijing. China has warned that its relationship with Iran “should not be disrupted or undermined” and that it will take “all necessary measures” to safeguard its interests.
伊朗自身已威胁要对美国的施压行动进行报复，这可能让一些波斯湾邻国感到紧张，担心如果顺从特朗普政府的要求，将再度遭受打击。其西北邻国土耳其也面临两难：一方面，它希望购买美国战斗机，因此需要让华盛顿站在自己一边；另一方面，伊朗去年供应了其超过 10% 的天然气进口量。
Total Iranian crude oil exports and volumes shipped to China
Note: Data is up to July 31, 2026. Iran may have exported additional volumes hiding the location of its tankers.
Source: Bloomberg estimates
Bloomberg
Iran itself has threatened to retaliate against the US pressure campaign, which could make some of its Persian Gulf neighbors nervous about renewed strikes if they comply with the Trump administration’s demands. Northwestern neighbor Turkey also faces a dilemma: On the one hand, it wants to keep Washington on side as it looks to purchase US finger jets; on the other hand, Iran provided more than 10% of its natural gas imports last year.
阿联酋已切断与伊朗的经济联系，指责伊朗政府向其领土发射弹道导弹。此举将加剧伊朗的压力，因为阿联酋是其最大的贸易伙伴之一。阿联酋一直是关键的中转站，当地商人进口西方商品，再转口至伊朗。阿联酋还充当伊朗企业的金融枢纽，为交易和获取外币提供便利。
The United Arab Emirates has already severed its economic ties with Iran, having accused the Iranian government of firing ballistic missiles at its territory. This will increase the strain on Iran as the UAE is one of its top trading partners. The UAE has been a key intermediary as merchants there imported Western goods and then exported them to Iran. It’s also served as a financial hub for Iranian businesses, facilitating transactions and access to foreign currency.
伊朗迄今是如何顶住经济压力的？
How has Iran been able to resist economic pressure thus far?
伊朗在应对贸易禁运、经济孤立和战争冲击方面拥有数十年经验。它采取了多种手段规避西方制裁，包括利用多层空壳公司掩盖商业交易，以及使用所谓的“影子船队”油轮来出口石油。
Iran has decades of experience parrying the impact of trade embargoes, economic isolation and war. It’s adopted various methods to circumvent Western sanctions, including layers of shell companies to obscure business transactions and so-called dark fleets of tankers to export its oil.
该国此前也曾经历过原油出口长期低迷的时期，包括特朗普首个任期时，美国退出与伊朗的国际核协议并重新实施严厉制裁。尽管当前的封锁正在实际阻碍伊朗向买家输送石油的能力，但影响仍需时间才能传导至经济层面。战争爆发以来的石油销售受益于全球能源价格飙升，为伊朗提供了资金缓冲。
The country has endured extended periods of low crude exports before, including during Trump’s first term in office, when he pulled the US out of the international nuclear deal with Iran and reimposed harsh sanctions. While the current blockade is physically hindering Iran’s ability to send oil to buyers, the effect will take time to filter down through the economy. Sales since the start of the war benefited from a jump in global energy prices, providing a financial buffer.
伊朗已加强利用不依赖霍尔木兹海峡的贸易路线，更多地倚重与巴基斯坦、阿富汗和中国的铁路连接，以及其沿里海的北部港口，这些港口传统上促进了与俄罗斯的贸易往来。
Iran Has Previously With stood Pressure on Its Oil Industry Iran’s crude oil exports
Note: Data is up to July 31, 2026. Iran may have exported additional volumes hiding the location of its tankers.
Source: Bloomberg estimates
Bloomberg
Iran has boosted the use of trade routes that don’t rely on the Strait of Hormuz. It’s leaned more on railway connections with Pakistan, Afghanistan and China, as well as its northern ports along the Caspian Sea, which have traditionally facilitated trade with Russia.
自 2013 年以来，伊朗一直奉行“经济抵抗”的官方政策。这是前最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊提出的主张，他在战争的首轮打击中被以色列杀害。他希望伊朗加强国内生产、减少对进口的依赖，以防进一步与西方隔绝。在特朗普第一任期内，这一目标取得了一定进展——当时外国商品和品牌的消失为伊朗制造商打开了市场。
Since 2013, Iran has had an official policy of “economic resistance.” This was a doctrine of former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed by Israel in the opening salvo of the war. He wanted Iran to strengthen its domestic production and reduce reliance on imports to guard against further isolation from the West. There was some progress toward this goal during Trump’s first term, when the disappearance of foreign goods and brands opened the market for Iranian manufacturers.
经济困境是否对伊朗政府构成威胁？
Is the economic pain a threat to Iran’s government?
去年 12 月里亚尔大幅贬值引发大规模抗议，当局予以致命镇压，导致数千人死亡。尽管经济不满可能引发进一步民间动荡，但这并不意味着政权摇摇欲坠。伊斯兰革命卫队已加强对权力的掌控。此外，战争也激起了公众对美国和以色列的反对情绪，这可能盖过部分国内不满情绪。
A major crash in the rial’s value in December triggered mass protestes, which were met with a deadly state crackdown that killed thousands of people. While there’s a possibility of further civil unrest over economic grievances, that doesn’t mean the regime is vulnerable to collapse. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has tightened its grip on power. The war has also galvanized public opposition to the US and Israel, which could overshadow some of the domestic resentment.
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